The San Jose Housing Market Is Splitting: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know Right Now

If you rely solely on citywide headlines, navigating the San Jose real estate market right now feels confusing. One report says prices are pulling back, while another highlights homes sparking multi-offer bidding wars.

The reality? Same city, same month, completely different rules.

Almost a third of homes in San Jose are selling under asking price. Yet, drive 15 minutes across town, and prime listings are still capturing three offers and going pending in roughly two weeks.

As a local real estate advisor leading the Spinella Group, I break down what’s really happening beneath the citywide averages, which neighborhoods are running hot versus quietly cooling, and what this split market means for your next move.

🎥 Watch the full video here: https://youtu.be/HpvkVg3fEYE

Why the San Jose Average Is Misleading

Citywide numbers are useful for a quick snapshot, but they can easily trick you.

• The Redfin Read: Redfin’s citywide data shows San Jose home prices down 1.4% year-over-year, with a median price hovering around $1.5 million.
• The Homes.com Split: A Homes.com report noted overall median sales prices down 5.8% year-over-year, but breaking it down by property type tells a very different story:
  • Single-family homes: Down 6.4%
  • Condos: Down 8.4%
  • Townhomes: Up 1.9%

When someone asks, "Is San Jose going up or down?" the honest answer is: Which San Jose? Strength and hesitation are co-existing across different pockets of the city.

Which San Jose Neighborhoods Are Hot vs. Cooling?

Underneath the citywide average, different micro-markets are moving in opposite directions:

• Cambrian: Up 14.9% year-over-year with a median around $2 million. This reflects a very specific buyer pool still fighting for a very specific type of home.
• Blossom Valley: Down 4.4% year-over-year, though the median remains around $1.5 million and homes continue to move quickly.
• Almaden Valley: Sitting around $2.4 million (flat year-over-year), but the price per square foot is up 8.3%. Buyers are paying a premium for quality, location, and scarcity, but they aren't blindly rewarding every listing just because it has an Almaden address.
• Evergreen: Up 1.9% year-over-year around $1.6 million, but days on market stretched from 11 days last year to 17 days. Prices are up, but buyers are taking their time.

Strategy for Buyers: Finding the Opportunity

Zillow’s June data pegs the typical San Jose home value at $1,413,000 with homes going pending in about 17 days. At the same time, Realtor.com reported that 16% of San Jose listings had price cuts in June, with days on market sitting at 37 days for those properties.

Furthermore, recent market data highlights a clear tug-of-war:

• 65.3% of San Jose sales closed over list price (Zillow, May).
• 28.6% of sales closed under list price.

How to Play It as a Buyer:

1. Look for Leverage: Stop chasing every shiny new listing. Look for homes that have been sitting longer than the neighborhood norm, properties with second price cuts, vacant homes, or sellers who have already purchased their next home and need a quick sale.
2. Negotiate Total Cost: With 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 6.55% (as of July 2026, per Freddie Mac), focus on terms beyond just the purchase price. Can you negotiate a closing cost credit, an interest rate buy-down, or a rent-back agreement that helps the seller? Small concessions make a massive difference in your monthly payment.

Strategy for Sellers: Pricing Ahead of the Market

If you are thinking about selling, you cannot price your home like it is still the peak emotional market where buyers had zero choices and no time to think.

• Avoid Aspirational Pricing: Listing high "just to see what happens" usually results in silence, followed by a price cut, which then prompts buyers to wonder what's wrong with the property.
• Create Early Urgency: Price ahead of the market, not behind it. Position your home so that active buyers comparison-shopping against stale inventory instantly recognize its value.

My Market Prediction: A Split Housing Market

San Jose is not heading toward a dramatic overnight crash, nor is it experiencing a runaway boom. Instead, we are settling into a two-tier market:

• Market #1 (High Demand): Turnkey homes that check every box. These properties still attract multiple offers, go pending in ~17 days, and regularly close over list price.
• Market #2 (The Opportunity Tier): Homes needing work, condos carrying high HOAs, overly ambitious initial list prices, or properties sitting past the first wave of attention. Here, buyers are quietly regaining leverage—securing credits, repair allowances, rate buy-downs, and sensible inspection windows.

Let’s Build Your Real Estate Plan

Navigating a split market requires a customized strategy tailored to your exact budget, timeline, commute, and school needs—not a one-size-fits-all headline.

Whether you’re looking to buy your next home or trying to decide whether to sell, rent out, or sit tight on your equity, I’m here to help you map out a clear plan with zero pressure.

Curious where you fit? Take my free 3-minute San Jose Neighborhood Match Quiz to align your budget and lifestyle with the neighborhoods that make sense for you.